(Image source from: Telangana crutial to Congress prospects in 2014 LS polls})

Creating a state of Telangana could ruin the prospects of the Congress in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. A united Andhra Pradesh helped Congress to capture power at Centre in 2004, and in 2009 to retain power. But in 2014 the bifurcation of the state or possibility of it will definitely affect the prospects of the party.

Decision of the Congress to create Telangana out of Andhra Pradesh led to deep uncertainities within the party. Even Congress parliamentarians and legislators are virtually in a revolt against the  bifurcation of Andhra Pradesh. While the people of Seemandhra region are more worried about the state's bifurcation than who wields power at the Centre.

People from Seemandhra will try to ensure that Congress doesn't return to power after the general elections. In such a scenario carving out Telangana might be more beneficial for the Congress as it would win the gratitude of the people fighting for a separate state. So the Congress-led UPA needs to form the state before the LS polls.

However, even the creation of the state doesn't seem to be of much benefit from poll point of view. As a united Andhra Pradesh sends 42 MPs to the Lower House, which is the highest number of seats from any state in south India. In case Telangana is formed, the new state will send 17 Mps, while Seemandhra would have 25. The numbers doesn't seem to be of great outcome.

Seemandhra leaders like Lagadapati Rajagopal, of ‘pepper-spray’ fame in Parliament, and even Andhra Pradesh chief minister Kiran Kumar Reddy are definitely not in favour of bifurcation. Lagadapati has total influence in Vijayawada, which is the hotbed of Seemandhra politics and the home turf of the leader.

Lagadapati had been expelled from the Congress and he reclaimed Vijayawada constituency from the TDP in 2004. In this LS elections, the staunch supporter of united Andhra will contest from his constituency under Samaikhyandhra Party that he and Kiran Reddy have plans to launch soon.

In this region Kammas and Kapus have considerable influence. Kammas are a landowning community who support TDP and the Kapus have been traditional supporters of the Congress in the region. However, in the 2014 poll contest caste factor would be negated and the issue of statehood would dominate. Now the contest would be between the YSR Congress, TDP, and Samaikhyandhra Party, if it forms.

Andhra Pradesh goes into assembly elections this summer. The TDP and the YSR Congress, major parties of AP, are focusing on capturing power in the state and have little interest in sending maximum MPs to the Lok Sabha. Both TDP chief Nara Chandrababu Naidu and YSR Congress leader Jaganmohan Reddy are interested only in state politics.

Jagan, who was denies chief minister's chair after his father's death by Sonia Gandhi, is in fact determined see the defeat of the Congress in Kadapa, his family constituency. Here, the Congress would find it difficult to even find a strong candidates.

Malkajgiri, where Nara Chandrababu Naidu is considering to contest for the LS polls seems uncertain. Here the YSR Congress, TDP, Congress as well as the TRS have a stake. The area has a huge mixed population and the people of Seemandhra will be the deciding factor.

Medak in Telangana is the stronghold of the TRS. KCR can easily win from the region in case he decides to contest from the region as he hails from here. 

BJP’s prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi’s growing popularity in Andhra Pradesh also makes things uncertain in the state. BJP's stand on the Telangana Bill in Parliament would be a deciding factor in getting votes for the saffron party.

(Picture Source: static.ibnlive.in.com)

(AW: Pratima Tigga)