(Image source from: Economic Survey 2015-16 tabled by Finance Minister ahead of general budget})

The Economic Survey 2015-16 tabled in the Parliament today by the Finance Minister Arun Jaitley stated that the benign price situation and comfortable level of external current account in the country makes it possible now for growth rates of 8 percent or higher in the next couple of years.

As per the Economic Survey 2015 tabled in Parliament, India has to adhere to the medium-term fiscal deficit target of 3 percent of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP).

The government has to ensure the expenditure control to reduce the fiscal deficit, the Economic Survey suggests. The survey is prepared by the finance ministry’s chief economic adviser Arvind Subramanian.

Highlights of teh economic survey

1.    FY17 GDP growth pegged at 7-7.5%

2.    FY16 GDP growth pegged at 7-7.75%

3.    Fiscal Deficit target of 3.9% for 2015-16 seems achievable

4.    Rates of 8% or higher possible in next 2 years, given macroeconomic stability

5.    Current Account Deficit as a proportion of GDP likely to be in the low range of 1 to 1.5%

6.    CPI inflation seen around 4.5 to 5% in 2016-17

7.    Expect RBI to meet 5 percent inflation target by March 2017

8.    7th Pay Commission recommendations not likely to destabilize prices and will have little impact on inflation

9.    Amidst gloomy international economic landscape, India stands as a haven of stability

10.    Low inflation has taken hold and confidence in price stability has improved

11.    FY17 expected to be challenging from fiscal point of view

12.    Foreign exchange reserves have risen to USD 349.6 (Jan-2016)

13.    Services continues to be key driver; expected to be 9.2% in 2015-16

14.    India’s long run potential GDP growth is substantial, about 8-10%

15.    Growth in industry is estimated to have accelerated during the current year

16.    Growth in the services sector moderated slightly, but still remains robust

17.    With reforms in key areas, there is reduction in macro vulnerability today

18.    Economic Survey highlights the importance and potential of spreading JAMTrinity across the Indian economy

19.    India ranks first in milk production, accounting for 18.5% of world production

20.    Indian equity market relatively resilient compared to other major emerging market economies

21.    Several initiatives taken would help transforming infrastructure sector ; results achieving & sustaining higher economic growth

22.    Reform package for the fertilizer Sector

23.    Low inflation has taken hold, confidence in price stability has improved

24.    Agriculture sector needs a transformation to ensure sustainable livelihoods for farmers

The ecenomic survey is a flagship annual document of the Ministry of Finance, which reviews the developments in the economy over the previous 12 months and summarises the performance on major development programmes and highlights the policy initiatives of the government and the prospects of the economy in the short to medium term.

The Finance Ministry has decided to go green and print lesser number of copies of the survey and budget. The documents will be made available online.

By Premji