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Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ruling party BJP could possibly be defeated by an opposition alliance (SP-BSP) in the country’s most populous and crucial state of Uttar Pradesh in a general election, which is due by May, according to an opinion poll released on Wednesday.
As per, The India Today-Karvy Insights Mood of the Nation poll survey that the number of seats held by Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and an ally could well be reduced to 18 seats.
In 2014, the BJP had nearly swept Uttar Pradesh, winning 71 seats and its alliance partner Apna Dal had won two, taking the BJP-AD alliance's tally wnt upto 73.
A total of more than 2,400 people were surveyed in Uttar Pradesh which is most populous state.
This tally is when there is 3 corner fight like BJP, SP - BSP alliance, congress going solo as it is not part of allinace.
The two regional parties have kept the Congress out of their alliance. The Congress has said it will contest on all Lok Sabha seats in Uttar Pradesh on its own.
As per this recently formed alliance between these two regional parties in the state they could win 58 seats without Congress joining it, the survey showed. BJP and its ally would win 18 seats in that scenario and Congress may win four seats in total 80 lok sabha seats
If all the opposition parties, including the Congress party, team up to take on Modi and that is joining the alliance.
That would mean they would have to agree on only one opposition candidate to fight the BJP in each constituency then loses for the BJP would be even more.
According to survey poll, if SP - BSP - Congress form an alliance then BJP could well be reduce to 5 seats.
As, Uttar Pradesh sends 80 MPs to the lower house of parliament, the most for any state in India.
The shocking poll comes after the BJP lost elections in five state assemblies late last year, including three Hindi heartland where it had control and won number of seats in 2014.
This survey was done before the Congress appointment of Priyanka gandhi as party’s general secretary in UP East.
So, after appointment of Priyanka Gandhi, congress party prospects may well be increase substantially in crucial state of Uttar Pradesh.
-Sai Kumar
