(Image source from: Why Narendra Modi has picked Varanasi as his battleground?})

That BJP's prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi will be contesting for the upcoming Lok Sabha elections from Varanasi seat is a stale fact. That AAP convener Arvind Kejriwal would take on Modi from the Hindi heartland too is a trite.

With Varanasi becoming the battleground this Lok Sabha Elections 2014, some of the 'fresh' questions trending now are: Why did Narendra Modi, of all places, decide to contest for the Lok Sabha elections from Varanasi? Is Varanasi a safe or a marginal bet for Narendra Modi and the BJP as a whole?

Backpedal to 2009 elections, and you will see that Varanasi had never been a sure-thing for the BJP. Murli Manohar Joshi cinched the election by just about 17,000 votes, thanks to heavy voting in Hindu middle-class areas on the second half of the poll day, which was deemed as an act of "Hindu consolidation" after the morning saw a sizeable turnout of Muslim voters, leading to the fear that Mukhtar Ansari, the notorious BSP candidate, might win.

Ansari is a man of disrepute with a long and strong criminal background. Supported by Mayawati, Ansari had emerged as a formidable candidate in 2009. If Mayawati had chosen a better, mor worthy and reputable Muslim nominee, then Joshi might have been possibly defeated.

Cut to 2014, and the battleground seems to be a safer bet for BJP and Modi, then what was in the past. That is because unlike the last elections, there is an overall, pan-Uttar Pradesh rise in BJP's support. BJP has managed to woo both the upper caste and urban dwellers. Some OBC sub-communities and youth voters across castes and identity groups too seem to be championing for BJP. And above all else, there is the Modi factor, which was simply not there in 2009.

So has Modi played safe by opting for Varanasi to contest the elections? The answer is 'Yes'.

Varanasi was picked as Modi's battleground not merely because of the city's symbolic value as the world's oldest living city and a constant of Hinduism. The reasons are more political, in truth.

By contesting from Varanasi, Modi aims to influence the 25-30 seats in the catchment area, stretching from eastern Uttar Pradesh to Bihar. In Poorvanchal, the BJP's biggest stumbling block is the Muslim-Dalit consolidation behind the BSP. By pitching Modi as a local candidate, BJP has placed a counter-narrative, not just in Varanasi, but more so in bordering districts.

Now the question is what chances do Kejriwal hold from Varanasi? Kejriwal definitely has decided to walk a tight rope. If he taps into the Muslim vote and hurts the BSP, he might end up swaying all votes in Modi's favor. Whether he will succeed to influence Varanasi's notorious urban middle class voters who are hostile to the Samajwadi Party government in Lucknow and tired of the Congress in New Delhi. Can an AAP campaign that targets Modi's "Gujarat model" sway their minds?

Whatever be the case, two things are for sure, Arvind Kejriwal will get a blockbuster media coverage, and secondly, Modi will win the elections.

AW: Suchorita Choudhury